Pakistan’s GDP Expands 2.4% in Q3 FY25, Falls Short of Annual Target

Islamabad: Pakistan’s economy expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter of the fiscal year ending in June, according to the National Accounts Committee (NAC). Despite the growth, the figure remains below the government’s annual target.

The NAC also revised its projection for FY25 GDP growth to 2.68%, bringing the total estimated size of the economy to $410.96 billion.

Sectoral Performance

• Agriculture: Grew by 1.18%, despite a decline in key crops.

• Industry: Contracted by 1.14%, impacted by negative growth in mining, quarrying, and large-scale manufacturing.

• Services: Continued to expand, contributing to overall economic stability.

Monetary Policy & Economic Adjustments

Earlier this month, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%, citing improved inflation trends. This move follows a series of rate cuts from a record high of 22%, aimed at supporting economic growth.

Manufacturing & Market Trends

The HBL Pakistan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 51.9 in April, down from 52.7 in March, reflecting concerns over global trade and industrial slowdown.

Expert Projections

Brokerage firm Topline Securities estimates Pakistan’s full-year GDP growth to be between 2.5% and 3.0%, with sectoral expectations as follows:

• Agriculture: 1.8%

• Industry: 1.0%

• Services: 3.4%

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast downward from 3.2% to 2.6%, reflecting ongoing economic challenges.